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Q.

A and B arc two independent witnesses (i.e. there is no collusion between them) in a case. The probability that
A will speak the truth is x and the probability that B will speak the truth is y. A and B agree on a certain statement.
The probability that the statement is true is

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a

xyx+y

b

xy1+x+y+xy

c

xy1xy+2xy

d

xy1xy+2xy

answer is D.

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Detailed Solution

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A and B will agree on a certain statement if both speak truth or both lie. We define the following events:

 E1= A and B both speak truth PE1=xy

E2= A and B both lie PE2=(1x)(1y)

E = A and B agree on a certain statement 

Clearly, PE/E1=1 and PE/E2=1 The required probability is PE1/E

Using Bayes' theorem

PE1/E=PE1PE/E1PE1PE/E1+PE2PE/E2=xy×1xy×1+(1x)(1y)1=xy1xy+2xy
 

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