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Q.

A box contains 12 red and 6 white balls. Balls are drawn from the bag, one at a time, without replacement. If in 6 draws, there are at least 4 white balls, find the probability that exactly one white ball is drawn in the next two draws (binomial co-efficients can be left as such). 

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a

 10C1×2C1 12C2 12C2×3C4 18C6+ 11C1×1C1 12C1 11C1×2C5 18C6

b

 10C1×2C1 12C2 12C2×6C4 18C6+ 11C1×1C1 12C1 12C1×6C5 18C6

c

 10C1×2C1 12C2 12C2×6C4 18C6- 11C1×1C1 12C1 12C1×6C5 18C6

d

 10C1×3C1 12C2 14C2×6C4 18C6+ 11C1×1C1 12C1 12C1×6C5 18C6

answer is A.

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Detailed Solution

Let us define the following events.
A: 4 white balls are drawn in first six draws
B: 5 white balls are drawn in first six draws
C: 6 white balls are drawn in first six draws.
E: exactly one white ball is drawn in next two draws (i.e.one white and one red)
Then

P(E)=P(E/A)P(A)+P(E/B)P(B)+P(E/C)P(C)

But

P(E/C)=0 [as there are only 6 white balls in the bag]

P(E)=P(E/A)P(A)+P(E/B)P(B)

 10C1×2C1 12C2 12C2×6C4 18C6+ 11C1×1C1 12C1 12C1×6C5 18C6

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