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Q.

A doctor is to visit a patient. From the past experience, it is known that the probabilities that he will come by train, bus, scooter or by other means of transport are respectively 310,15,110 and 25. The probabilities that he will be late are 14,13and112, if he comes by train, bus and scooter respectively, but if he comes by other means of transport, then he will not be late. When he arrives, he is late. Then the probability that he comes by train is 

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a

35

b

23

c

12

d

13

answer is A.

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Detailed Solution

E1=come by train

E2=come by bus

E3=come by scooter

E4=come by any other means of trans fort

PE1=310   PE2=15   PE3=110   PE4=25

A=he arrirves but he is late

PAE1=14     PAE2=13     PAE3=112     PAE4=0PE1A=310×14310×14+15×13+110×112+25×0 =99+8+1=918=12 

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A doctor is to visit a patient. From the past experience, it is known that the probabilities that he will come by train, bus, scooter or by other means of transport are respectively 310,15,110 and 25. The probabilities that he will be late are 14,13 and 112, if he comes by train, bus and scooter respectively, but if he comes by other means of transport, then he will not be late. When he arrives, he is late. Then the probability that he comes by train is