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Q.

A man is known to speak the truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and reports that it is a six. The probability that it is actually 6 is 

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a

18

b

28

c

38

d

58

answer is C.

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Detailed Solution

E1: die shows a six

E2: die doesn't show a six 

A: man reports it is a six 

We have 

PE1=16,PE2=56PAE1=34,PAE2=14

By the Bayes' rule 

PE1A=PE1PAE1PE1PAE1+PE2PAE2                   =(1/6)(3/4)(1/6)(3/4)+(5/6)(1/4)=3/8

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