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Q.

A man takes a step forward with probability 0.4 and backward with probability 0.6. The probability that at the end of eleven steps he is one step away from the starting point.

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a

0.22

b

0.35

c

0.37

d

0.27

answer is C.

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Detailed Solution

Since the man is one step away from starting point mean that either
(i) man has taken 6 steps forward and 5 steps backward
(ii) man has taken 5 steps forward and 6 steps backward
Taking, movement 1 step forward as success and 1 step backward as failure
    p = Probability of success = 0.4
and  q = Probability of failure = 0.6
     Required Probability   =P{X=6  or  X=5}
                                            =P(X=6)  +P(X=5) =11C6p6q5+11C5p5q6 =11C5(p6q5+p5q6)=11.10.9.8.71.2.3.4.5{(0.4)6  (0.6)5+(0.4)5  (0.6)6} =11.10.9.8.71.2.3.4.5(0.24)5 =0.37
Hence the required probability   =0.37

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