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Q.

A person goes to office by car, scooter, bus, train the probability of which being17,37,27 and 17 respectively probability that he reaches office late, if he takes car, scooter, bus or train is  29,19,49 and 19 respectively given that he reached office in in time, if the probability  that he travelled  by car is  1P then P is _____

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answer is 7.

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Detailed Solution

 

Probability that a  person goes to office by car =P(C)=17

Probability that a  person goes to office by scooter =P(S)=37

Probability that a  person goes to office by bus=P(C)=27

Probability that a  person goes to office by train =P(T)=17

L= probability that he reaches office by late

I= probability that he reaches office in time

P(L/C)=29,P(L/S)=19,P(L/B)=49,P(L/T)=19, P(I/C)=79,P(I/S)=89,P(I/B)=59,P(I/T)=89,

 

Using Baye’s Theorem
P(C/I)=P(C)P(I/C)P(C)P(I/C)+P(S)P(I/S)+P(B)P(I/B)+P(T)P(I/T) P(C/I)=79×1779×17+89×37+59×27+89×17=77+24+10+8=749=17p = 7

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