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Q.

Each of the n urns contains 4 white and 6 black balls. The (n+1)th urn contains 5 white and 5 black balls. Out of the (n+1) urns, an urn is chosen at random and two balls are drawn from it without replacement. Both the balls turn out to be black. If the probability that the (n+1)th urn was chosen to draw the balls is 116then the value ofn2 is

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answer is 5.

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Detailed Solution

Let A1= Event of choosing one of the first n urns which
contain 4 white, 6 black balls
A2= Event of getting (n+1)th urn which contain 5 white,
5 black balls
Let E = event of getting both balls black when 2 balls
are drawn from the urn chosen.
Given PA2E=116by using Baye’s Theorem,
1015n+10=11623n+2=116n=10 or n2=5
We haveP(E)=75100=34 and P(F)=80100=45

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