How do coaching institutes predict NEET ranks?

Most Coaching institutes predict NEET ranks using a combination of extensive historical data, statistical modeling, and real-time inputs from students. They leverage their vast experience and large student bases to provide an educated estimate.

1. Historical Data Analysis:

• Previous Years' Marks vs. Rank Trends: This is the cornerstone. Coaching institutes maintain a massive database of past NEET results, meticulously mapping scores to their corresponding All India Ranks (AIRs) for several years. They analyze how a particular score translated into a rank in previous exams.
• Cut-off Trends: They track the NEET cut-off scores for various categories (General, OBC, SC, ST, EWS) and for different types of colleges (government, private, AIQ, state quota). This helps them understand the admission landscape.

2. Statistical Models and Algorithms:

• Score Distribution: They analyze the distribution of scores across the entire pool of test-takers from previous years to understand how marks are clustered at different levels.
• Percentile Calculation: The NEET ranking is based on the percentile system. Coaching institutes use statistical models to estimate the percentile of a given score based on the expected performance of the current year's candidates. Percentile = (Number of candidates who scored less than you / Total candidates) × 100.
• Algorithms: These algorithms process the vast datasets and apply various statistical techniques to predict the likely rank curve for the current year.

3. Current Year's Factors & Adjustments:

• User Input (Self-Reported Scores): Students enter their estimated NEET scores (calculated using the provisional answer key and their OMR sheets) into the coaching institute's rank predictor tool. This real-time data from a large number of users provides initial insights into the current year's performance trends.
• Exam Difficulty Level: Coaching experts analyze the NEET paper immediately after the exam. Based on their assessment of the paper's difficulty (compared to previous years), they adjust their prediction models. A tougher paper might mean a lower score yields a better rank, and vice-versa.
• Number of Test-Takers: The overall increase or decrease in the number of NEET applicants each year significantly impacts the competition and, consequently, the ranks. Coaching institutes factor in the official number of registered and appeared candidates.
• Tie-Breaking Rules: They incorporate NTA's tie-breaking rules (higher marks in Biology, then Chemistry, then Physics, then fewer incorrect answers, and then age) into their algorithms, though predicting exact ties for millions of students is complex.
• Student Feedback/Performance in Mock Tests: Some institutes also factor in their own students' performance in mock tests leading up to the actual NEET exam, as they have a large sample size of well-prepared candidates.