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Q.

Let p denote the probability that a man aged x years will die in a year. The probability that out of n men A1,A2,A3,....An each aged x, A1will die in a year and will be the first to die is

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a

1(1p)n

b

1n11(1p)n

c

1n1(1p)n

d

1n1

answer is A.

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Detailed Solution

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Let Ei denote the event that Ai dies in a year, then P(Ei)=p and P(Ei')=1p for I = 1, 2, …..n P (none of A1, A2, …. A3 dies in a year) =P(E1'E2'En')=P(E1')P(E2')....P(En')=(1p)n
Because E1, E2,……En are independent.
Let E denote the event that at least one of A1,A2,.......An dies in a year, then P(E)=1P(E1'E2'....En')=1(1p)n
Let F denote the event that A1 is the first to die, then P(F/E)=1n.Also, P(F) = P(E).P(F/E) =  1n1(1p)n

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