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Q.

State & prove Baye’s theorem

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Detailed Solution

Bayes Theorem :
Statement : Suppose A1,A2,....An are n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events of a random  experiment associated with the sample space such that P(A)  0 and for any event A such that

PAkA=PAkPA/Aki=1nPAiPA/Ai for any k=1,2,....n

Proof : Given P(A)  0 for i = 1,2,3,....n 
Since  A1,A2,...An are mutually execlusive

AiAj=ϕ&1i,jn

Since A1, A2-----An are exhaustive events then 

A1A2An=S

Here for any event A of S, we have

AAi,AAj are also exclusive for ij

P(A)=P(AS)=PAA1A2An

=PAA1AA2+.PAAn

=PAA1+PAA2++PAAn

(by Axiam of additivity)

=PA1PA/A1+PA2PA/A2++PAnPA/An

=i=1nPAiPA/Ai

Consider for 1kn,PAK/A=PAKAP(A)

(by defi. Of conditional probability)

=PAKPA/AKP(A)=PAKPA/AKi=1nPAiPA/Ai

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