Q.

The probability Pk  that a family has k children is given by  Pk=(12a)2(k1), k2.  It is known that a family has two boys. Then which of the following is/are true?

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a

Probability that the family has two girls as well is  81512 when  a=13

b

Probability that has only two children is  2764  when  a=13

c

Probability that the family has two girls as well is 81512  when  a=12

d

Probability that has only two children is  2764 when a=12

answer is A, B, C, D.

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Detailed Solution

Let A2   denote 2 boys 
 B2 denotes 2 girls 
Cn  denote, n children
 P(C2/A2)=P(C2)p(A2/C2)n=2P(Cn)P(A2/Cn)    P(B2/A2)=n=2P(Cn)p(A2B2/Cn)n=2P(n)P(A2/Cn)

Pn=P(Cn)=(12a)  (12)n1,  n=2,3,...... P(A2/Cn)=nc2(12)n   P(A2)=n=2P(Cn)P(A2/Cn) =(12a)  n=2(nc2)(12)2n1      =(12a)42n=2n(n1)(14)n2 =(12a)422(114)3=8(12a)27   P(A2B2)=n=4P(cn)  p(A2B2/Cn) =P(C4)P(A2B2/C4)   (12a)  (12)3(4c2)  (12)4   =6(12a)128=3(12a)64 P(C2/A2)=(12a8)8(12a)27=2764   P(B2/A2)=3(12a)648(12a)27=81512
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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