Questions
A doctor is called to see a sick child. The doctor knows (prior to the visit) that 90% of the sick children in that neighborhood are sick with the flu, denoted by F, while 10% are sick with the measles, denoted by M. A well known symptom of measles is a rash, denoted by R. The probability of having a rash for a child sick with the measles is 0.95. However, occasionally children with the flu also develop a rash, with conditional probability 0.08. Upon examination the child, the doctor finds a rash. Then what is the probability that the child has the measles?
detailed solution
Correct option is D
A: Doctor finds a rashB1: Child has measlesS: Sick childrenP(S/F)=0.9B2: Child has flu ⇒PB2=9/10P(S/M)=0.10PA/B1=0.95P(R/M)=0.95PA/B2=0.08P(R/F)=0.08PB1/A=0.1×0.950.1×0.95+0.9×0.08=0.0950.095+0.072=0.0950.167=95167Similar Questions
In a bolt factory, machines A, B and C manufacture 60%, 25%and 15% respectively. Of the total of their output 1%, 2%, 1% is defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the total production and found to be defective. From which machine, the defective bolt is most expected to have been manufactured
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