One percent of the population suffers from a certain disease. There is blood test for this disease, and it is 99 %accurate, in other words, the probability that it gives the correct answer is 0.99, regardless of whether the person is sick or healthy, A person takes the blood test, and the result says that he has the disease, The probability that he actually has the disease, is -
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answer is 0.5.
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Detailed Solution
A: blood result says positive about the disease B1: Person suffers from the disease ∴PB1=1100B2: person does not suffer ∴PB2=99100PA/B1=99100,PA/B2=1100PB1/A=PB1·PA/B1PB1·PA/B1+PB2·PA/B2 =1100·991001100·99100+99100·1100=99198=12=.50